Scenarios - Monte Carlo

Run 1,000+ scenarios to quantify uncertainty and predict outcomes.

Applications

Investment

  • Estimate the probability of hitting a target IRR or MOIC.
  • Show the full range of returns, not just three cases.

Credit

  • Estimate the probability of a covenant breach.
  • Size debt to a target probability of meeting DSCR.

Valuation

  • Build a value distribution with confidence intervals.
  • Support a valuation range with percentiles, not point estimates.
Input Variable(s)
The model drivers to simulate, each with a distribution from the Monte Carlo module.
Output Variable
The result to track, such as valuation, profit, NPV or IRR. Add a name and cell reference.
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